The President is still at the mercy of events, especially in Iraq. If there are large numbers of American casualties over the next few weeks, enough voters might still turn against the whole enterprise and the man who began it.The presidential debates will also be important. Indeed, the Republican party has gone back to the past: to the era of precinct politics and knocking on doors.George Bush is a natural party builder, as is Karl Rove. Between them, they have deepened their party’s organisation and recruited lots of helpers who are happy to supplement the high technology and the electronic media by getting out on the beat.It is not over yet. Mr Rove and his team have spent much of the past four years putting that right. To their horror, the Republicans found that their opponents had become better than they were at turning out the vote. That cost the Republicans 29 electoral college votes.In 2000, blacks and trade unionists constituted 27 per cent of the electorate and 38 per cent of those who voted.

Some Republican analysts believe that all this lost them five points.There were also difficulties in party organisation. In the publicity about Florida, it has been forgotten that the Democrats captured four states – Iowa, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin – by a total of just under 17,000 votes. Then, the President made the extraordinary decision to take the final weekend off. As a result, the news broadcasts were dominated by his decades-old drunk-driving conviction. We can be sure that Karl Rove has already planned the next 57 days. He will have decided when it should be Mr President speaking from the Oval Office, or good old George Bush chatting away in Ollie’s Diner.Equally, the Republicans have learned from the tactical mistakes which almost cost them the last election.

These days, the President is much more fluent, relaxed and confident. He always seems to be enjoying himself, which is not true of Mr Kerry.This time, Mr Bush can also exploit the electoral advantages of the presidency. The face could look tense and the smile sometimes appeared strained; there was too much unnatural smirking That is no longer true. It is not going to be John Kerry.Moreover, Mr Bush has become a formidable campaigner Four years ago, he could be awkward on the stump The words tended to come in bursts, interspersed by pauses. Over the next eight weeks, a lot of Americans will be deciding which of the two candidates is the more likeable, and the outcome might well hinge on their answer. There were plenty of American liberal journalists in New York.

All were desperate to see Mr Bush defeated; few, if any, were equally enthusiastic about a Kerry victory This is a man with no friends People who know him do not seem to like or respect him. He is clever, but in a snide, smartass way that is unlikely to commend itself widely. They have succeeded more easily than they expected.Nor is it clear how Senator Kerry can recover, for he has one grave handicap: himself. The Republicans always intended to stigmatise him as an East Coast elitist liberal.