A woman who had given him a hard time told him: “I think you’re doing a grand job.”The other allegation being thrown at Mr Blair is that he is out of touch and in denial about Iraq. When the residents of a Birmingham council estate outlined the problems caused by yobs, drug addicts and alcoholics, he could barely get a word in. Having escaped the Westminster hothouse, he seemed rejuvenated. Discussing skills training and anti-social behaviour with “real people” provided a temporary respite from Iraq.Nor did he look like a liability.

We are not at that point yet, but we might be in October.When I watched him at close quarters in the West Midlands on Thursday, the Prime Minister did not look like a man about to throw in the towel. Close allies have always feared that he would have “nothing in the bank” in the event of a real leadership crisis and that there could be an unstoppable haemorrhage of support. But if he turns, the game will be up.Mr Blair has always been tolerated, but never loved, by his own party. If Iraq is still in crisis, Mr Blair will be in desperate trouble.A formal leadership challenge is unlikely. But he could walk the plank if enough Labour MPs judge him to have become an electoral liability and persuade cabinet ministers to act.The pivotal figure will be John Prescott At the moment, he remains solidly behind Mr Blair. If worse-than-expected results are blamed on “the Iraq effect”, the pressure on the Prime Minister will mount.But that doesn’t mean that his MPs will try to oust him. “If we installed Gordon Brown [as Prime Minister] tomorrow, the problems in Iraq would still be there,” one Labour MP said.

“People are furious with Blair, but don’t want to knife him.”I suspect the most dangerous point for the Prime Minister will be the Labour Party conference in October, which is supposed to be the launchpad for a general election next May. Perhaps his famous luck is running out.The latest crisis coincides with the run-up to the local and European elections on 10 June, and Labour officials fear that many of the party’s supporters will not vote or will switch to the Liberal Democrats. The problem is that they are often outgunned by the hawkish Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, and Dick Cheney, the Vice-President.One key question is whether the scandal over Iraqi detainees will reduce Mr Rumsfeld’s clout. But he is a great survivor and, sadly, as yet there is little sign of his influence falling.Mr Blair’s troubles in his own party will undoubtedly get worse if he sends more troops to Iraq.